‘Every single week. Every single order’: H-E-B curbside shopper shares ‘recession indicator’ she’s noticed in grocery orders
According to one TikTok creator, the number one recession indicator should be that “everyone is getting spaghetti.” In a video with over 84,000 views, Gabby Sauceda (@gabri3lllllaaa), a curbside shopper on H-E-B, discussed how one order rang alarm bells for a recession.
“I’m not kidding, I’ve never seen this many people get spaghetti in this amount,” she said in the video. “Every single week. Every single order… That really should’ve been our first sign.
Sauceda indicated that the video was meant to be harmless, adding to the description, “This is not meant to be a negative post at all, I love all my customers and H-E-B spaghetti.” However, the clip does raise questions about the United States’ possible economic crisis. What consumer products let us know that a recession is occurring?
Wait, so is the U.S. getting close to a recession?
There have been reports floating in the air that a recession may or may not be happening soon, which can be confusing for many American consumers. A recent article from Bloomberg has described the “looming risk” over stock markets, while JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that “real numbers will deteriorate soon” in a recent conference.
A recession, defined as a “widespread downturn in economic activity that typically lasts longer than a few months,” is usually measured by two consecutive quarters of shrinkage in gross domestic product (GDP). The U.S. economy shrank in its first quarter, but hasn’t reached an estimate for the second quarter.
Is spaghetti an actual recession indicator?
Sauceda is right to notice trends in the foods she bags. Multiple indices use consumer products—from snacks to lipstick—as recession indicators.
Spaghetti isn’t a “recession indicator,” but a lack of optional products like snacks or luxury goods typically is. If Sauceda is also noticing that spaghetti is replacing occasional luxuries, then it can be considered a sign of the times.
Recession indicators are usually based on discretionary goods instead of household staples. A discretionary good is usually a product that a consumer can buy with leftover income rather than a staple. Food pantry items like spaghetti or alfredo will, for the most part, always be purchased. It’s hard to use them as a gauge on the economy, as they only indicate some level of economic strain that could be explained for any number of reasons.
Many recession indicators are legitimate. Economists track sales of underwear and frozen pizzas to see if consumers are still buying splurge goods.
@gabri3lllllaaa it’s okay guys i’m buying spaghetti too DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT MEANT AS A NEGATIVE POST AT ALL, I LOVE MY CUSTOMERS AND HEB SPAGHETTI the postings on this site are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of H-E-B #recession #heb #iwork4heb ♬ original sound – gabby sauceda ??
Do other factors play a role in customers buying so much pasta?
Many commenters disagreed with Sauceda, explaining that there are other reasons why H-E-B customers are buying large quantities of pasta.
@taraphrasing wrote, “girl, when H-E-B offers me that free pasta with a sauce purchase, I STOCK up.”
@pts87 explained their perspective by saying, “Kids are off for the summer. Easy food to make.”
The Mary Sue has reached out to H-E-B’s media team and Sauceda for comment.
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